I've had something of a hiatus from reading hard science in the last several years, lulled into thinking I was getting enough of it in Wired and the mainstream media. Reading Jen's books (I helped edit her forthcoming one) has provided a rude awakening. I'm not anywhere near as up on breaking science news as I used to be. To remedy that, I'm letting my Wired subscription lapse and picking up one to New Scientist instead.
I've always been interested in science, thanks to my early reading in science fiction. I'm not sure I'd have thought science was so cool if I hadn't been reading SF from an early age. Fiction, and SF in particular, made the future exciting, fascinating, full of both positive possibilities and terrifying apocalyptic visions. It made tech beyond TVs—rocket packs, credit chips, computers, rockets, satellites, telescopes and the burgeoning field of electronics—attractively cool too. It was one reason I pursued biology and chemistry studies all the way through college, taught science writing as a grad student, and one of the attractions (I thought) of working for the American Institute of Physics (nerd heaven!). One of the interesting things I've noticed since I first began reading Isaac Asimov, Arthur C. Clark, Robert Heinlein, Larry Niven, C.J. Cherryh et al is that the more I read about hard science, the more convinced I've become that SF is one of the major drivers of innovative science and technology, or at least an important part of the feedback loop.
I was thinking about this the other day as I used my debit card to pay for groceries. This has become such a commonplace activity now that most of us don't think about it. But sometime in the 70s, I remember reading a novel (it might have been by Philip K. Dick) in which the protagonist used something very similar—a "chip" or plastic chit "charged" with a certain amount of money, through which his movements were traced. (Come to think of it, this sounds a bit like the 1956 short story "The Minority Report," doesn't it?) Credit and debit cards are so common now that we forget they were just becoming popular with the middle class in the late 70s and cheap reliable magnetic reader technology coupled with computer networks didn't make them nearly ubiquitous (and give them their instant traceability) until much later. But I was reading about their common use in a decade when the latest thing in recording media was the 8-track cartridge and computers still used punch cards.
Of course, this proposition can become a nightmarish chicken-or-egg problem, since many SF authors either are scientists or engineers themselves or read extensively in these fields themselves to generate ideas. Good hard SF (where the story is built around the science and its consequences) requires research to make the settings and tech plausible if not actually factual. But there are some clear examples. One of the most obvious is virtual reality, which may not have existed for years in any form, if at all, had William Gibson not dreamed it up out of whole cloth in his breakthrough novel Neuromancer in 1984 (which seems a somehow appropriate year). The cyberspace/cyberpunk culture he brought to life in his novels spawned a geekboy fanclub amongst the nascent hacker culture that took his ideas and ran to their labs with them. Gibson has proven to be, if nothing else, a dramatic predictor and terminology spawner.
Some of the more astonishing developments include neural implants, most of which are still under development but which may in the near future allow the restoration of sight, mobility, hearing (these are already available), or if Gibson's vision pans out here too, wireless interaction with your computer sans keyboard or mouse.
Update: And here's an example I can't help adding, though it's more a nomenclature influence than an actual tech driver. You can now teleport laser beams, just like Mr. Scott, according to New Scientist. It may not be just like Star Trek's teleporter, but this might be the beginning of a refutation of The Physics of Star Trek, which said teleportation would never happen. (See Clarke's Law #1, below.)
The most recent example of fiction driving tech is the still-experimental space elevator, first posited by engineer and SF author Arthur C. Clarke in The Fountains of Paradise in 1979. Clarke is one of the biggest drivers of space technology, in fact. As his entry in Wikipedia says, "In the 1940s he forecast that man would reach the moon by the year 2000, an idea experts dismissed as rubbish. When Neil Armstrong landed in 1969, the United States said Clarke "provided the essential intellectual drive that led us to the moon."
Providing the intellectual drive is not quite the same as dreaming up the tech on your own, but it's an indication of how influential writers of visionary SF can be. Clarke has been particularly so, if for nothing else but his three laws:
- When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
- The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
- Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
One of the corollaries to Number 1 (I think it might be Heinlein's) is that the best way to invent something new is to find out what the experts say is impossible and then do it. This is one of the things science fiction does. Of course, it's easier to do on a page than in a lab, or at least you might think so. But even extrapolation from the state of current technology can be a bitch, and it takes someone truly visionary to imagine not only a brand new technology, or development in technology, but how it would fit into the world. What uses would we find for this new technology? How would the technology or devices affect society? Would it change human thinking or social structures in significant ways? For instance, just look at what the development of personal listening devices from Walkmen to iPods has done to music distribution and copyright theory.
These are not questions scientists routinely ask themselves, and not always because they don't think of them; sometimes they're not allowed to. The inventors of lasers probably didn't anticipate their use in gunsights, just as the inventors of GPS, closed circuit television, credit cards, and mobile phones probably weren't thinking (much) about the potential for Big Brother-style observation in their inventions. But these are exactly the kinds of questions writers and other artists ask themselves all the time. Science and technology are human pursuits that don't exist in the social vacuum scientists sometimes pretend they do, in their talk of "pure" research. As the pharmaceutical companies in general and Genentech in particular have demonstrated, research is almost always supported by a profit motive of some kind. Sometimes that's the main motive, and damn the social consequences. Those social consequences are what science fiction is good at pointing out. Maybe if we could get the research funders to read a little of it, it might drive their consciences the way it often drives their profit margins.
Update: And along comes Metafilter with a link to a site called Technovelgy.com, wherein modern inventions are paired up with their fictional precursors. And you thought I was just blowing this out of my butt, didn't you?